AGP Executive Report

Water Security in Eritrea: Eritrea inaugurated a new dam in Adi-Hawosha (Gala-Nefhi), storing about 180,000 cubic meters to boost potable water and irrigated agriculture, with residents urged to use it wisely for long-term sustainability. Climate Diplomacy: Eritrea delivered a UN statement on sea-level rise, warning it threatens coastal communities, marine ecosystems, and development, and calling for practical, rights-based action for vulnerable states. Horn of Africa Instability: The UN warned that renewed fighting across northern Ethiopia could return the region to full-scale war, with reports of drone use and civilian harm, while internet and communications cuts deepen humanitarian strain. Regional Water Resilience: A UK-backed program is set to support groundwater resilience in the Horn of Africa, linking renewable energy and water management to help communities adapt. Migration and Safety: A deadly English Channel crossing saw three migrants die, including a 10-year-old boy believed to be Eritrean, after an overcrowded dinghy left northern France with 105 people.

Water Infrastructure: Eritrea inaugurated a new dam in Adi-Hawosha (Gala-Nefhi, Central Region) built with public and government support, costing about 11 million Nakfa, storing 180,000 cubic meters to boost potable water and irrigated agriculture. Climate Diplomacy: Eritrea’s UN statement at UNGA81 urged urgent action on sea-level rise, warning it threatens coastal communities, marine ecosystems, and development across its Red Sea islands and maritime territory. Heat & Food Risk: A new model flags super El Niño as a major heat-death risk, with Eritrea included in the Sahel belt projected to be among the hardest hit—raising stakes for heat protection and rural livelihoods. Regional Conflict & Humanitarian Pressure: UN officials warned that renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray—spreading across Tigray, Amhara, and Afar—risks a return to full-scale war, with reports of drone use and civilian harm, plus communications cuts that worsen daily survival. Governance & Rights: Eritrea’s press freedom remains under scrutiny as diaspora voting and pageantry highlight the contrast between international visibility and restricted internet and media freedoms at home. Security & Sports: Eritrea is tightening security around upcoming AFCON qualifiers after player disappearances during earlier matches, reflecting how strict controls shape football participation.

Water & Food Security: A new dam was inaugurated in Adi-Hawosha (Gala-Nefhi, Central Region), costing about 11 million Nakfa, with 180,000 m³ storage to boost potable water and irrigated agriculture—officials urged residents to use it wisely for long-term sustainability. Climate Risk & Oceans: Eritrea’s UN statement at UNGA81 highlighted sea-level rise as a direct threat to its coastal communities, marine ecosystems, and development, calling for practical policy and legal stability for vulnerable states. Heat & Health: A new study warns strong El Niño could drive major heat-death increases, with Eritrea included in the Sahel belt facing some of the highest risk. Regional Security Spillover: UN officials warned Ethiopia’s northern fighting could return the country to full-scale war; reports also cite drone use and civilian harm—an instability that can quickly disrupt humanitarian access and environmental recovery. Red Sea Pressure: Commentary on renewed Houthi aggression stressed risks to Red Sea shipping and regional stability, with knock-on effects for livelihoods and coastal environments.

Tigray Escalation & Regional Spillover: Northern Ethiopia’s renewed fighting has seized three airports (Mekelle, Axum, Shire) and disrupted flights, with UN officials warning drones and civilian harm as internet and call services are cut across Tigray. Eritrea’s Climate Position: Eritrea’s UN statement highlights sea-level rise as an existential threat to its Red Sea coastline and marine ecosystems, calling for practical action and legal stability for vulnerable coastal states. Water Resilience for the Horn: A UK-backed Horn of Africa programme is moving to strengthen groundwater resilience and water management, pairing renewable energy and storage with water-focused risk reduction. Heat & El Niño Risk: New research flags super El Niño as a major driver of dangerous heat, with Eritrea included in the Sahel belt projected to face severe impacts. Energy & Fertilizer Shock: The AfDB’s emergency buffer targets high-vulnerability countries in East Africa, listing Eritrea among those exposed to fuel and fertilizer price spikes that can hit harvests. Biodiversity Pressure: The 30×30 goal is off track, with only about 20% of land and 10% of ocean protected globally—Eritrea named among countries still lagging.

Sea-Level Rise Diplomacy: Eritrea’s UN delegation urged urgent, practical action on sea-level rise, warning it threatens coastal communities, marine ecosystems, and development across its Red Sea coastline and 350+ islands. Horn of Africa Climate Resilience: A UK-backed Horn of Africa groundwater resilience push (ARCAN/World Bank-linked) aims to strengthen water security and sustainable energy for arid regions including Eritrea. Heat and Livelihoods: New research flags super El Niño as a major heat risk for parts of northern East Africa, with Eritrea included in the Sahel belt facing severe heat impacts. Biodiversity Targets: A global review on the 30×30 goal notes Eritrea among countries still lagging on protecting land and ocean. Tigray Conflict Spillover: Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia—airport seizures, drone strikes, and internet cuts—raises fears of wider instability that could worsen humanitarian conditions and environmental stress across the border region. Red Sea Security and Shipping: Reports on Bab al-Mandeb disruptions highlight how chokepoint instability can affect regional trade and marine safety, with Eritrea’s location central to the risk. Press Freedom Pressure: Commentary highlights Eritrea’s ongoing restrictions on internet access and press freedom, underscoring how information limits can hinder environmental accountability.

Climate Diplomacy: Eritrea’s UN delegation warned that sea-level rise is an existential threat for its 350+ islands and Red Sea coastline, calling for practical action and legal stability for vulnerable coastal states. Drought & Heat Risk: An IGAD climate advisory says below-normal rains are worsening drought across northern East Africa, with severe impacts on Eritrea’s agriculture and grazing lands; meanwhile, new research flags super El Niño heat as a major driver of heat deaths, with Eritrea in the wider high-risk Sahel belt. Biodiversity Pressure: A global review ahead of the next biodiversity summit finds the world is far from the 30×30 goal, with only about 20% of land and 10% of ocean protected—placing Eritrea among countries still lagging. Red Sea Environment & Security: Analysis highlights how instability around Bab al-Mandeb and the Red Sea corridor can ripple into regional food, energy, and shipping—linking maritime safety to Horn of Africa stability. Regional Conflict Spillover: Renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray has raised fears of wider disruption, including drone strikes and airport seizures, with UN officials urging restraint—an indirect but serious threat to civilians and local livelihoods.

Northern Ethiopia Escalation: Renewed fighting in Tigray has opened multiple fronts, with reports of drone strikes, civilian harm, and the seizure of airports—raising fears the 2022 Pretoria peace deal is unraveling and that Eritrea could be pulled in. Regional Water Resilience: A UK-backed programme is laying groundwork for groundwater resilience across the Horn of Africa, pairing renewable energy with water management to protect communities in arid zones. El Niño Heat Threat: Scientists warn Super El Niño could drive major heat-related deaths, with Eritrea included in the Sahel belt at high risk—underscoring the need for urgent heat protection. Drought Pressure in the North: An IGAD climate advisory says below-normal rains are worsening drought across northern East Africa, with severe impacts on crops, grazing lands, and water supplies in Eritrea and neighboring areas. Red Sea Biodiversity Focus: A “voices of coral” residency in Aqaba is using comics and art to push coral reef conservation in the Gulf of Aqaba, highlighting the wider Red Sea ecosystem stakes. Nile Basin Projects: Egypt is seeking funding for 36 southern Nile Basin projects, expanding hydropower and water schemes that could reshape regional water and energy dynamics for countries including Eritrea.

Climate & Drought Watch: IGAD’s climate advisory warns that below-normal rains from May–August are worsening drought across northern East Africa, with severe impacts in parts of Eritrea, northern Ethiopia and Sudan—raising risks of crop losses, shrinking pasture and water shortages for people and livestock. Biodiversity Deadline: A new global assessment says the world is far off the 30×30 goal, with about 20% of land and 10% of ocean protected—fueling pressure ahead of the next biodiversity summit in Yerevan. Red Sea Environment & Shipping: With Yemen fighting intensifying, attention is back on Bab al-Mandeb, a key chokepoint near Eritrea and Djibouti; disruptions threaten shipping, energy flows and wider supply chains that can also spill into coastal ecosystems. Eritrea Policy & Sanctions: The US removed sanctions tied to the expired national emergency affecting Eritrean military and ruling-party entities, while noting other restrictions may still remain. Regional Conflict Spillover: Renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray has opened multiple fronts and shattered parts of the Pretoria peace framework—raising humanitarian and environmental risks across the Horn.

Tigray Conflict Escalation: Fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray has reignited, with regional forces seizing three airports and opening new fronts along the Tigray-Amhara and Tigray-Afar borders, while drone strikes reportedly hit Alamata and civilians were killed and injured—raising fears the 2022 Pretoria peace deal is unraveling. Regional Spillover & Red Sea Pressure: The renewed crisis is playing out alongside wider Horn-of-Africa tensions, including allegations of Eritrea-linked support for armed groups and growing scrutiny of Red Sea chokepoints like Bab al-Mandeb, where shipping disruption could ripple into energy and food flows. Eritrea Sanctions Update: The US removed Eritrea-related sanctions tied to the expired Ethiopia emergency, a move Eritrean officials say could reopen investment and trade—though it does not necessarily mean all restrictions are gone. Climate Stress in the North: An IGAD climate advisory warns below-normal rainfall and worsening drought across northern East Africa, with severe impacts on Eritrea and northern Ethiopia threatening crops, pasture, and water supplies. Biodiversity Goal Watch: A new global assessment says the world is still far from the 30×30 target, with only about 20% of land and 10% of ocean protected—keeping pressure on upcoming biodiversity talks. Coral Conservation in the Red Sea: Artists in Aqaba are creating comics to boost coral reef protection awareness, linking culture with marine conservation in the Gulf of Aqaba.

Tigray Escalation and Regional Spillover: Regional forces in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray seized control of three airports and clashed with federal troops, shattering the 2022 peace deal and raising fears of wider conflict across Ethiopia—amid long-running tensions involving Eritrea, Sudan, and Red Sea access. Red Sea Pressure on Shipping: With the Bab al-Mandeb Strait under renewed scrutiny as de facto restrictions and blockade threats disrupt routes, the knock-on effects for energy, food supply, and livelihoods are growing—an issue tightly linked to Eritrea’s coastline and ports. El Niño-Linked Drought Risk: An IGAD climate advisory warns that below-normal rainfall is worsening drought across northern East Africa, with severe impacts in parts of Eritrea and neighboring countries, threatening crops, pasture, and water for communities and livestock. Biodiversity Goal in Question: A global assessment says the world is far from the 30×30 target, with only about 20% of land and 10% of ocean protected—raising stakes for ecosystem resilience in a warming, stressed region. U.S. Sanctions Shift: The U.S. removed Eritrea-related designations tied to a Tigray-linked emergency, a move framed as easing economic pressure while Red Sea security concerns keep Eritrea in focus.

Red Sea security & Horn spillover: Fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray escalated again, with reports of airports seized and flights suspended, raising fears the fragile Pretoria peace is unraveling and that Eritrea-linked tensions could widen the conflict. Maritime chokepoint pressure: Attention is also on Bab al-Mandeb, where de facto restrictions tied to Houthi actions are disrupting Red Sea shipping—an environmental and livelihood risk for the region that depends on stable sea routes. Climate stress for Eritrea and neighbors: IGAD warns prolonged rainfall deficits across northern East Africa are worsening drought, with soil moisture shortages and vegetation stress hitting Eritrea especially hard, increasing crop and pasture losses. El Niño mortality warning: A new “Super El Niño” forecast links extreme heat to major death toll risks across the global south, underscoring the urgency of adaptation. US sanctions shift: The US lifted an Eritrea sanctions emergency tied to the Tigray conflict, a policy change that may affect trade and investment pressures around Red Sea-linked activity.

Climate & Food Security: A new IGAD climate advisory warns that prolonged rainfall deficits across northern East Africa are worsening drought. Below-normal rains (May–August) are hitting Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan, with soil moisture shortages and vegetation stress raising risks of crop losses, weaker pasture, and dwindling water for people and livestock. Super El Niño Humanitarian Risk: Scientists warn “Super El Niño” could drive extreme heat and hunger, with projections of up to 451,000 deaths globally and severe impacts across the global south; WFP reports South Sudan alone faces acute food insecurity for millions as drought bites. Red Sea Environment & Stability: Regional security around the Bab el-Mandeb is framed as tightly linked to Horn of Africa stability—an issue that can also disrupt fisheries, coastal livelihoods, and shipping-linked environmental protection. U.S. Sanctions Update (Eritrea): The U.S. removed Eritrea-related sanctions tied to the Ethiopia/Tigray emergency, a move Eritrean officials say could reopen investment and trade—potentially affecting environmental management capacity and port activity.

Climate Watch: IGAD warns El Niño–linked rainfall deficits are deepening drought across northern East Africa, with Eritrea hit hardest in agricultural and grazing areas as soil moisture drops and vegetation stress rises, raising risks of crop losses and shrinking pasture. Food Security: The WFP says “Super El Niño” is already driving acute hunger in South Sudan, with 7.8 million people facing daily food shortages and another million at risk by October; impacts are spilling into Eritrea and the wider region. Red Sea Environment & Risk: A new analysis argues Red Sea stability can’t be separated from Horn of Africa security, as volatility around Bab el-Mandeb threatens shipping, energy and food supplies that also shape environmental and coastal pressures. Policy & Trade: The U.S. removed Eritrea-related sanctions tied to a Tigray-era emergency, a move Eritrean officials say could reopen investment and trade—important for future environmental management and port-linked development.

Sanctions & Trade: The U.S. removed Eritrea-linked sanctions tied to the Ethiopia Tigray emergency, with OFAC deleting the Eritrean Defense Forces, PFDJ, Hidri Trust, and Red Sea Trading Corporation from its list—an Eritrean official called it “constructive goodwill” that could unlock investment and trade, while U.S. officials stress other restrictions may still remain. Coral Conservation in the Red Sea: Artists from Jordan and Switzerland are in Aqaba for “voices of coral,” turning reef science into comics with support from regional and UN partners, in cooperation with the Aqaba Marine Reserve. Climate & Food Security: The WFP warns “super El Niño” is worsening hunger in South Sudan—7.8 million people facing acute food insecurity—and drought impacts are already spilling into neighboring countries including Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda, and Kenya. Water/Red Sea Geopolitics: Analysis highlights how Red Sea rivalry and Ethiopia’s push for sea access are reshaping regional strategy, with knock-on effects for stability and livelihoods.

U.S. Sanctions Shift: The U.S. removed sanctions tied to a 2021 Eritrea designation after the emergency behind Executive Order 14046 expired, taking off the Eritrean Defense Forces, PFDJ, Hidri Trust, and Red Sea Trading Corporation from OFAC’s list—though it does not automatically mean all U.S. restrictions are gone. Red Sea Pressure: The move lands as security focus intensifies around Yemen and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, putting Eritrea’s southern coastline and Assab port in sharper view. Regional Food Crisis: The WFP warns “super El Niño” is worsening hunger in South Sudan, with 7.8 million people facing acute food insecurity; impacts are also spreading to Eritrea and the wider Horn, while funding shortfalls threaten aid access by October. Eritrea in the Spotlight: A separate report notes Eritrea’s sanctions expired without being formally lifted, keeping uncertainty around what changes legally and what stays in place.

U.S. Sanctions Update: The U.S. Treasury removed Eritrea-related sanctions tied to a 2021 emergency order, including the Eritrean Defense Forces and PFDJ, saying the legal basis expired—though it does not automatically mean all U.S. restrictions are gone. Red Sea Pressure: The move comes as security focus intensifies around Yemen and the Bab el-Mandeb, with Eritrea’s southern coast and Assab port near key shipping routes. Climate & Food Security: The World Food Programme warns “super El Niño” is worsening hunger in South Sudan, with 7.8 million people facing acute food insecurity; it also flags spillover impacts across Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda, and Kenya. Environment-Linked Humanitarian Risk: With drought, conflict, and shrinking aid converging, the region faces higher pressure on water, crops, and livelihoods—raising the stakes for resilience planning in the Horn.